North Pole will be completely ice-free in summer by 2050, even if we reduce emissions, research indicates. (Public domain)
New recently published research predicts a massive reduction of sea ice in the Arctic for the next three decades, suggesting that the North Pole will experience its first ice-free summer before the 2050s.
This unfortunate conclusion has coincided in all weather models carried out, even in those that considered a rapid reduction in emissions of carbon dioxide.
The study published in Geophysical Research Letters, was performed using data from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which make a prediction of how the Earth will change according to the climate policies adopted and how the management of greenhouse gas emissions is carried out.
The estimate made indicates that the Earth has a carbon budget Remaining approximately 1,000 gigatons of carbon dioxide, determining that this is the absolute limit for future emissions if we seek to offset the 2 ° C rise in global temperatures, compared to pre-industrial levels.
Ice free arctic
After analyzing more than 40 different climate models, the authors of the investigation determined that the Arctic will be completely free of ice in some summer seasons, even if we cut emissions or stick to the carbon dioxide budget.
Dirk Notz, researcher of the University of Hamburg in Germany and author of the study said in a release:
If we reduce global emissions quickly and substantially, and thus keep global warming below 2 ° C relative to pre-industrial levels, Arctic sea ice will likely disappear occasionally in summer even before 2050. This really surprised us. “
In a total of 128 simulations performed that included future carbon dioxide emissions of less than 1,000 gigatons, 101 had sea ice levels in summer with less than 1 million square kilometers in summer, before 2050.
It is essential to clarify that the annual disappearance occurred more frequently in models based on fairly high carbon dioxide emissions. This means that we can decrease these ice-free summers by reducing the generation of greenhouse gases.
Ice at the poles, mainly in the Arctic, is important to sustain the ecosystems that exist there, to regulate planetary climate cycles, and to provide hunting grounds for animals that live there, such as the polar bears, in addition to maintaining a cool temperature in the extreme north of the planet.
Each year the volume of Arctic ice increases in winter and decreases in summer, however in recent years a acceleration in melting from the glaciers.
Although this article suggests that we are on our way to a temporary disappearance of Arctic sea ice every year, it is also a clear message that we must reduce carbon dioxide emissions to ensure that total summer melt is only an occasional event and not an event that is repeated every year.
The scientific study has been published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
Source: EurekAlert
